Montana’s unpredictable weather is nothing new, but the extremes are becoming more regular. The list of recent extreme weather events is also getting longer and more costly. Record flooding on the Musselshell River in 2011 was followed by severe and destructive flooding in 2014 and 2018. In 2022, a category 5 atmospheric river fell on melting snow and contributed to record floods on the Upper Yellowstone. Record low snowpack and record high temperatures in the winter of 2024 resulted in record low streamflows in the northwest that summer. 2017 brought Montana’s worst drought since the 1930s that was followed by another extreme drought in 2021. The period from June through December 2024, 2023, and 2021 set temperature records. The list goes on. Just about every year Montana’s weather gets a little more extreme.
As increasing levels of greenhouse gases warm the earth, Montana’s water cycle has intensified resulting in more extreme precipitation, flooding, more severe droughts, dangerous heat domes, and an increase in the number and intensity of wildfires. Rising temperatures increase evaporation and plant transpiration increasing the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Warmer air holds more water. This fact, coupled with Montana’s wide swings in temperature, is resulting in more violent storms. Cold fronts from the north slam into water-laden warm fronts from the south or the west resulting in rainstorms like the one last May that dropped 11 inches of rain in a matter of days over the Bears Paw Mountains.
A changing climate is also affecting Montana’s weather circulation patterns. Increased weather variability is causing some areas to receive more precipitation, while other areas nearby become drier. In Montana, we are seeing both effects with more intense precipitation, severe droughts, longer dry spells, windier conditions, and hotter temperatures. Unlike western Montana where average precipitation is trending drier, eastern Montana, especially near the North Dakota border, is trending wetter, averaging approximately two inches more rain per year since 1900. Despite this tendency, eastern Montana has become prone to more frequent and intense dry spells during the summer. Last year, parts of Carter County received three times the normal monthly precipitation in May; however, below average precipitation during six of the next seven months and temperatures 4°F above average resulted in extreme drought there.
Winter temperatures have also become more extreme. In 2023, December temperatures were more than 10°F above average, and in 2024, temperatures averaged 8°F above normal. Interspersed with generally warmer winter conditions, channels of warm air traveling up the west coast can disrupt polar winds that circle the North Pole causing cold air to blast south bringing bitter cold to Montana. In February, Montana shivered with temperatures that averaged up to 8°F below normal, while Barrow, Alaska was cozy with high temperatures that averaged up to 36°F above normal. As warm air pushed up to the Arctic, cold air plunged south causing a deep freeze all the way to Mexico.
As Montanans, we pride ourselves on our ability to withstand all the weather that Mother Nature throws our way. But as Montana’s weather turns more extreme, everyone needs to take steps to prepare and adapt to a climate that in any year can deliver severe drought, wildfire, dangerous flooding, or heat waves that endanger lives and threaten livelihoods. The effects of climate change are here today, and our extreme weather is a symptom of this change. Facing an uncertain and extreme weather future, we need the collection of accurate and complete weather data compiled and maintained by NOAA and the National Weather Service more than ever.
Kelsey Jencso is the W.A. Franke Endowed Chair of Hydrology in the W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation at the University of Montana. He is also the State Climatologist and Director of the Montana Mesonet.
By Kelsey Jencso: August 4, 2025 – Bozeman, Mt
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